Environmental Valuation & Cost-Benefit News

Link: http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ssl_energy-savings-report_10-30.pdf

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has released analysis findings of the energy savings potential of solid-state lighting (SSL) sources for general illumination applications compared to conventional light sources (e.g., incandescent and fluorescent). Using an econometric model of the U.S. lighting market, the February 2010 report estimates national energy savings if SSL technology achieves certain forecasted price and performance objectives.

Key findings include:
* Over the analysis period, spanning 2010–2030, the cumulative energy savings are estimated to total approximately 1,488 terawatt-hours, representing $120 billion at today's energy prices.
* These savings would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 246 million metric tons of carbon.

Introduction
Solid-state lighting (SSL) has the potential to revolutionize the lighting market through the introduction of highly energy-efficient, longer-lasting, versatile light sources, including high-quality white light. Previously relegated to colored-light applications such as traffic signals and exit signs, SSL products are now successfully competing with conventional technologies including incandescent and fluorescent lamps in general illumination applications. SSL can be found in directional lamp fittings such as down-lights and under-cabinet lighting; in area light fittings such as replacement two-foot by two-foot ceiling fixtures and roadway lighting; and in niche applications such as commercial refrigeration display lighting and automobile day-running lamps.

SSL technology continues to advance at a rapid pace, with improvements being achieved in efficacy, light quality, and operating life. In addition, manufacturing improvements and market competition are putting downward pressure on retail prices, benefiting consumers. As industry and government investment continues to improve the performance and reduce the costs associated with this technology, SSL will become more competitive with conventional light sources and can be expected to capture increasing shares of the general illumination market. This analysis attempts to quantify the national energy savings that would accrue due to the increasing market penetration of energy-efficient solid state lighting.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) are collaborating on a Next Generation Lighting Initiative to accelerate the development of white-light SSL and position the U.S. as a global leader in this technology.
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Conclusions
Over the last few decades, advances in lighting technologies such as the development of T8 and T5 fluorescent tubes, electronic ballasts, pulse-start metal halide HID lamps and others have yielded considerable energy savings to the lighting market.
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In order for the estimated energy savings projection to be realized, SSL will need to achieve substantial improvements in price, efficacy and operating life. If these improvements are met, the economics would support SSL increasing its market share through the end of the analysis period and beyond. Relative to the reference case, the LED and OLED investment scenarios considered are both projected to reduce lighting energy consumption in absolute terms over the 20-year analysis period while the annual lumens delivered increases by 28.8 percent. This estimated reduction of 2.05 quads for LED (or 1.51 quads for OLEDs) in 2030 will contribute to peak electricity savings as commercial lighting is a peak load contributor through both direct consumption and indirect (i.e., reducing HVAC loads) consumption. This reduction will ease pressure on the transmission and distribution system during these peak times, and contribute to a cleaner environment.

U.S. Department of Energy Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Division www1.eere.energy.gov
February 16, 2010