Showing posts with label General. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General. Show all posts

Monday, January 23, 2012

Do Regulators Overestimate the Costs of Regulation?

http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eed.nsf/WPNumber/2011-07
Abstract: It has occasionally been asserted that regulators typically overestimate the costs of the regulations they impose. A number of arguments have been proposed for why this might be the case, with the most widely credited one being that regulators fail sufficiently to appreciate the effects of innovation in reducing regulatory compliance costs. Most existing studies have found that regulators are more likely to over- than to underestimate costs. Moreover, the ratio of ex ante estimates of compliance costs to ex post estimates of the same costs is generally greater than one. In this paper I argue that neither piece of evidence necessarily demonstrates that ex ante estimates are biased. There are several reasons to suppose that the distribution of compliance costs would be skewed, so that the median of the distribution would lie below the mean. It is not surprising, then, that most estimates would prove to be too high. Moreover, we would expect from a simple application of Jensen’s inequality that the expected ratio of ex ante to ex post compliance costs would be greater than one. In this paper I propose a regression-based test of the bias of ex ante compliance cost estimates, and cannot reject the hypothesis that estimates are unbiased. Despite the existence of a number of papers reporting ex ante and ex post compliance cost estimates, it is surprisingly difficult to get a large sample of such comparisons. My most salient finding does not concern the bias of ex ante cost estimates so much as their inaccuracy and the continuing paucity of careful studies.
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A very thorough comparison of ex ante to ex post estimates of costs was conducted in 2000 by Winston Harrington, Richard Morgenstern, and Peter Nelson. The researchers considered 28 regulations written by EPA, OSHA, and a handful of other regional and international regulators. A number of different industries were covered. Ex ante cost estimates were considered “accurate” if they were within ± 25% of ex post values, and either too high or too low if they fell outside this range. By this standard total costs of regulation were overestimated in 15 instances, underestimated in only three, and deemed reasonably accurate in the remaining 11.
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The next major retrospective study of the costs of regulation was completed in 2005 by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB 2005). OMB reviewed 47 regulations initiated between 1976 and 1995. EPA issued 18 of the regulations in the OMB sample, the most of any of the five federal agencies included in the study (the others were the National Occupational Safety and Health Administration (13 regulations included), the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (8), the Department of Energy (6) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (2)). As is generally the case with estimates of regulatory costs, the sample was determined by the availability of data, not by any attempt to generate a random cross-section of regulatory activity. The results of the OMB study are less striking than those of some other researchers. Of 40 regulations for which comparable ex ante and ex post data are available, 16 ex ante projections overestimated cost, 12 underestimated them, and 12 were approximately accurate. The OMB study was not completely independent of earlier work, however: for instance, nine of the studies in its sample were adopted from Harrington, et al. 2000.

At least three studies have been conducted of the accuracy of ex ante cost measures in other countries (in addition, Harrington et al. 2000 includes three examples drawn from Singapore, Norway, and Canada among their 28 case studies). While such inquiries obviously consider costs generated under different legal and regulatory structures than prevail in the U. S., they may still be useful in interpreting general approaches to regulatory cost estimation. It might also be noted in passing that international standards for the analysis of regulatory impacts have become more similar over time, with the United Kingdom (MacLeod, et al., 2006) and the European Union adopting such requirements.5 A study conducted by the Stockholm Environmental Institute considered the cost estimates presented by industry in regulatory negotiations, and found them to be consistently higher than ex post realizations of actual costs (Bailey, et al., 2002).

How has Oregon's land use planning system affected property values?

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837711000469
Abstract: Oregon's landmark land use planning system has been criticized for imposing large negative effects on landowners’ property values, although evidence to support these claims has been lacking. This paper examines longitudinal data for undeveloped parcels since before adoption of the planning system. The sample includes parcels under different land use regulations, and it compares Oregon to Washington. The results indicate generally that property values have increased at similar rates both inside and outside urban growth boundaries, and across parcels zoned for different uses and across state lines. The results are consistent both with theory and with other studies indicating land use regulations can have positive, neutral or negative effects.
 
Highlights:
► The effects of land use regulations on property values in Oregon are evaluated.
► “Before-and-after” data covering 35 years are examined in Oregon and Washington.
► Results find property values have risen at similar rates inside and outside urban growth boundaries. ► Results find property values have risen similarly across zoning types and state lines.
 
Many states in the USA attempt to manage urban growth so that development is directed to urban areas equipped to accommodate development, and rural lands are preserved for resource and other non-urban uses. The state of Oregon is entering its third decade of what many commentators describe as the nation's most aggressive urban growth management programme administered statewide. This article reports a recent evaluation of the effectiveness of the state urban growth management policies as they are implemented by the metropolitan Portland area. The metropolitan Portland area contains the largest population, employment and land base within a single urban growth boundary in the USA. Using primary data collection and analysis, the effectiveness of the urban growth management and resource land preservation effort is assessed. Nearly all regional development has been directed to the urban growth boundary and away from resource lands. Many problems with administration are found, however. Policy implications are suggested.
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In Lane County Oregon data show a large difference between real per-acre property values inside and outside the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB). By 2002, this difference was $24,894 per acre. [This implies] that the UGB, by limiting development opportunities, has greatly reduced the value of parcels outside the boundary.  However, this conclusion is not necessarily warranted. While the current average value of land inside the UGB is higher than that outside, the same was true in 1965. The differences in values in 1965 cannot be due to the UGB, as it had not been designated at that time. They likely were due to locational advantages, particularly proximity to the city center. The average distance to the Eugene city center for our sample of parcels outside the UGB is more than twice that for those inside the UGB.
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Location relative to the UGB is a relatively coarse filter. High-density residential development is not necessarily permitted on all parcels within the UGB. Thus, we also evaluated the effects of different zoning classes. For the parcels in our sample, the highest density residential zoning category (a maximum of 14 single-family housing units per acre) was low-density residential zoning (R-1). Residential housing development is allowed on parcels zoned rural residential (RR), but at lower densities (in our sample, either 5- or 10-acre minimum lot size). Finally, exclusive farm use (E) and forest lands (F) zoning are very restrictive in terms of housing development.  For example, dwellings may be constructed on EFU land only if they are directly related to the agricultural enterprise.
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Land with R-1 zoning has the highest average value in 2002, in large part because of its proximity to the city center. This is followed by land with RR zoning, E zoning, and F zoning. This suggests that zoning restrictions have not greatly reduced property values. Land that eventually was zoned R-1 already had the highest average per-acre value in 1965: $1266 per acre, compared to $389 per acre (RR), $504 per acre (E), and $210 per acre (F). Like parcels located inside the UGB, R-1 land tended to have locational advantages such as proximity to the Eugene city center.

We compared the growth in land values for each zoning designation relative to values prior to implementation of land use regulations. For each subsample, we took the 1965–1972 average value as the base and computed the increase in value in each period relative to that base. The highest rates of  appreciation were realized on land with F zoning. By 2002, the value of this land had grown about 200 percent more than land with the least restrictive zoning (R-1). A high growth rate was also seen on land with RR zoning. The lowest growth rate was on the developable lands (R-1 zoning).
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In Jackson County as expected, parcels with the least restrictions on residential housing construction have the highest average values in 2005. However, the growth in average land values over the 1965–2005 period was greatest for parcels with OSR and WR zoning. The average value of parcels with OSR and WR zoning relative to their 1965 value was 1,160 percent and 1,602 percent, respectively.

For RR and EFU parcels, the 2005 value was about 530 percent of the 1965 value. Thus, properties with OSR and WR zoning appreciated more by 2005 than properties with RR and EFU zoning. A similar result was found in Lane County.

by William K. Jaeger 1, Andrew J. Plantinga 1, and Cyrus Grout 2
1. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, United States; 213 Ballard Extension Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States. Tel.: +1 541 737 1419.
2. INRA (French National Institute for Agricultural Research), France
Land Use Policy via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com
Volume 29, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 62–72

Also see: http://arec.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/faculty/plantinga/jaeger_plantinga_grout_2011_land_use_policy.pdf
Keywords: Land use regulations; Property values; Urban growth boundaries; Land use planning

Monday, January 2, 2012

A Regulatory System for the Twenty-First Century Cass Sunstein, Administrator, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/speeches/a-regulatory-system-for-the-twenty-first_century-11-30-2011.pdf
As you may have noticed, the national debate over regulation has become unusually politicized and polarized.
In recent months, some people have stressed the crucial importance of regulatory safeguards – including rules that reduce deaths on the highways, prevent fraud and abuse, keep our air and water clean, and ensure that the food supply is safe.

Other people have objected to expensive regulations and burdensome mandates that impair growth, competitiveness, and innovation -- and that cost jobs.

In some contexts, both sides make exceedingly important points. The first sentence of the President’s January Executive Order explicitly recognizes those points, emphasizing the need to protect public health and welfare while also promoting growth and job creation.

But in some ways, the polar positions remain stuck in outmoded and decreasingly helpful debates from decades ago – from the 1970s and before.

In recent years, we have learned a lot about regulation. We know a lot more than we did during the New Deal period and the Great Society; we also know far more than we did in the 1980s and 1990s.

Here are eight of the most important things that we have learned:
  • Cataloguing consequences. We have developed state-of-the-art techniques for anticipating, cataloguing, and monetizing the consequences of regulation, including both benefits and costs.
  • Systemic effects. We know that risks are part of systems. We know that efforts to reduce a certain risk may increase other risks, perhaps even deadly ones, thus producing ancillary harms. At the same time, we know that efforts to reduce a certain risk may reduce other risks, perhaps even deadly ones, thus producing ancillary benefits.
  • Flexibility. We know that flexible, choice-preserving approaches, respecting heterogeneity and the fact that one size may not fit all, are often desirable, both because they preserve liberty and because they cost less – sometimes a lot less.
  • Small steps, large benefits. We are aware that large benefits can come from seemingly modest and small steps – including simplification of regulatory requirements, provision of information, and sensible default rules, such as automatic enrollment for retirement savings.
  • Public participation. We know, more clearly than ever before, that it is important to allow public participation in the design of rules, because members of the public will have valuable and dispersed information about likely effects, existing problems, creative solutions, and possible unintended consequences.
  • Disclosure. We know that if carefully designed, disclosure policies can promote informed choices and save both money and lives. Consider, for example, the recently redesigned fuel economy label, drawing attention to the concrete economic consequences of differences in miles per gallon, and the substitution of the clear Food Plate for the confusing Food Pyramid.
  • Evidence, not anecdotes or intuitions. We know that intuitions and anecdotes, however compelling they may seem, and however suggestive that regulation is helpful or harmful, are both unreliable, and that advance testing of the effects of rules, as through pilot programs or randomized controlled experiments, can be highly illuminating.
  • Continuing scrutiny. We know that it is important to explore the effects of regulation in the real-world, to learn whether they are having beneficial consequences or producing unintended harm. In short, we need careful assessments before rules are issued, and we need continuing scrutiny afterwards.
Of course it is true that people’s values differ, and in some cases, the relevant values will lead in a certain direction even if the evidence is clear. What I want to emphasize here is the opposite possibility, and the neglected one – that when the evidence is clear, it will often lead in a certain direction even when there are differences with respect to underlying values.

If, for example, a regulation would save a lot of lives and cost very little, people are likely to support it regardless of their party identification; and if a regulation would produce little benefit but impose big costs on real people, citizens are unlikely to favor it, regardless of whether they like elephants or donkeys. At least this is so if we engage on the facts.

To evaluate regulation, and its actual benefits and costs, we have to do that. Consider three facts:
  1. In the first two years, the net benefits of rules issued in the Obama Administration have been over $35 billion – over three times the corresponding number in the first two years of the Clinton Administration, and over ten times the corresponding number in the first two years of the Bush Administration.
  2. There has been no increase in rulemaking in this Administration. On the contrary, the number of significant rules reviewed by OIRA and issued in the first two years of the Obama administration is lower than the number issued in the last two years of the Bush administration – and indeed, the Obama Administration average is, through its first two years, lower than the Bush Administration average through its eight.
  3. In the past decade, the costs of economically significant rules reviewed by the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) were highest in 2007 and 2008, not 2009 and 2010. In its last two years, the administration of George W. Bush imposed far higher regulatory costs than did the Obama administration in its first two years.

On January 18th of this year, President Obama set out a fresh approach to federal regulation – an approach that reflects a lot of the new thinking about regulation. The very first paragraph of his executive order, a kind of mini-constitution for the twenty-first century regulatory state, emphasizes the importance of “economic growth, innovation, competitiveness, and job creation.” It states that our regulatory system “must promote predictability and reduce uncertainty.” It adds that our regulatory system “must measure, and seek to improve, the actual results of regulatory requirements.”

The new approach promises, at once, to maximize net benefits and to eliminate unnecessary regulatory burdens and costs on individuals, businesses both large and small, and state and local governments.

Among other things, the President called for an unprecedentedly public, and an unprecedentedly ambitious, government-wide “lookback” at federal regulation. The lookback requires all agencies to reexamine their significant rules, and to streamline, reduce, improve, or eliminate them on the basis of that examination.

Over two dozen departments and agencies have released final plans to remove what the President has called unjustified rules and “absurd and unnecessary paperwork requirements that waste time and money.” The plans span over 800 pages and offer more than 500 proposals.

In the coming years, billions of dollars in savings are anticipated from just a few initiatives from the Department of Transportation, the Department of Labor, HHS, and EPA. And all in all, the plan’s initiatives will save tens of millions of hours in annual paperwork burdens on individuals, businesses, and state and local governments.

Some of the plans list well over fifty reforms. Many of the proposals focus on small business. Indeed, a number of the initiatives are specifically designed to reduce burdens on small business and to enable them to do what they do best, which is to create jobs.

Many of the reforms will have a significant economic impact. Here are just a few examples:
  • The Department of Health and Human Services recently announced proposed and final rules that are expected to eliminate over $1 billion in annual regulatory costs.
  • The Occupational Safety and Health Administration has announced a final rule that will remove over 1.9 million annual hours of redundant reporting burdens on employers and save more than $40 million in annual costs.
  • OSHA plans to finalize a proposed rule projected to result in an annualized $585 million in estimated savings for employers. This rule would harmonize U.S. hazard classifications and labels with those of a number of other nations by requiring the adoption of standardized terms.
  • Since the 1970s, milk has been defined as an “oil” and subject to costly rules designed to prevent oil spills. In response to feedback from the agriculture community and the President’s directive, EPA recently concluded that the rules placed unjustifiable burdens on dairy farmers -- and exempted them. The exemption gives whole new meaning to the phrase “don’t cry over spilled milk.” And over the next decade, the exemption will save the milk and dairy industries, including small business in particular, as much as $1.4 billion.
  • The Departments of Commerce and State are undertaking a series of steps to eliminate unnecessary barriers to exports, including duplicative and unnecessary regulatory requirements, thus reducing the cumulative burden and uncertainty faced by American companies and their trading partners. These steps will make it a lot easier for American companies to reach new markets, increasing our exports while creating jobs here at home.
  • In line with proposals from the Jobs Council, the Department of State has indicated that it will revisit current visa requirements and consider how best to promote tourism, thus promoting growth and creating jobs.
Of course, we don’t only need to look back; we also need to look ahead about how we regulate in the future.
The January Executive Order provides a series of new directives to govern future rulemaking. Emphasizing the importance of predictability and certainty, those directives are consistent with, and informed by, what we have learned about regulation in recent years. And those directives have been explicitly informing our efforts since January. You may have noticed that several rules, including some in the area of labor, have been withdrawn or are being rethought with reference to the principles in the new Executive Order.

Let me emphasize five key points.
  1. Public participation. The President made an unprecedented commitment to promoting public participation in the rulemaking process – with a central goal of ensuring that rules will be informed, and improved, by the dispersed knowledge of the public. Agencies are not merely required to provide the public with an opportunity to comment on their rules; they must also provide timely online access to relevant scientific and technical findings, thus allowing them to be scrutinized.
  2. Advance consultation. The Order directs agencies to act, even in advance of rulemaking, to seek the views of those who are likely to be affected. This group explicitly includes “those who are likely to benefit from and those who are potentially subject to such rulemaking.” Among other things, this emphasis on early involvement is an effort to acquire relevant information and to avoid unintended harmful consequences.
  3. Simplification and harmonization. The Order specifically directs agencies to take steps to harmonize, simplify, and coordinate rules. It emphasizes that some sectors and industries face redundant, inconsistent, or overlapping requirements. In order to reduce costs and to promote simplicity, it requires greater coordination. The order also explicitly connects the goal of harmonization with the interest in innovation, directing agencies to achieve regulatory goals in ways that promote that interest.
  4. Quantification. The Order firmly stresses the importance of quantification. It directs agencies “to use the best available techniques to quantify anticipated present and future benefits as accurately as possible” – and to proceed only on the basis of a reasoned determination that the benefits justify the costs.
  5. Flexibility. The Order directs agencies to identify and to consider flexible approaches that reduce burdens and maintain freedom of choice for the public. Such approaches may include, for example, public warnings, appropriate default rules, or provision of information “in a form that is clear and intelligible.” We know that simplification of existing requirements can often promote compliance and participation and that complexity can have serious unintended consequences. We also know that flexible performance objectives are often better than rigid design standards, because performance objectives allow the private sector to use its own creativity to identify the best means of achieving social goals. To promote flexibility, we have recently issued a call to all agencies to reduce reporting burdens on small business and to eliminate unjustified complexity. We have received dozens of important initiatives in response; they were made public in September.
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Cass Sunstein
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/speeches/a-regulatory-system-for-the-twenty-first_century-11-30-2011.pdf
November 30, 2011

Monday, December 26, 2011

Lecture - Cost-Benefit Analysis for Ecosystem Restoration Projects by Dr. Thomas Elmqvist on YouTube

http://environment.yale.edu/teeb/foundations/elmqvist/

Thomas Elmqvist, PhD, is Professor in Natural Resource Management at Stockholm University. His research is focused on ecosystem services, land use change, natural disturbances and components of resilience including the role of social institutions. He is coordinating  a major interdisciplinary research theme as part of the Stockholm Resilience Centre (www.stockholmresilience.su.se) at Stockholm University, focussingon governance and management of ecosystem services in urban landscapes. Dr. Elmqvist participated in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and was principal investigator of several multidisciplinary projects in Africa and India. He serves as associate editor for the journals Ecology and Society, Conservation and Society, Ambio and Sustainability Science. He is currently a co-chair of the Science Committee BioSustainability at Diversitas and was one of the lead authors of The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity – Ecological and Economic Foundations (www.teebweb.org).
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: TEEB @ Yale - Ecological and Economic Foundations
November, 2011