Estimating the Residential Land Damage of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Abstract:

The cost of a nuclear power plant accident critically depends on people’s willingness to pay for avoiding exposure to the nuclear fallout. This paper is the first to estimate such a willingness to pay by observing the change in transaction prices before and after the Fukushima nuclear accident with the degree of radioactive contamination. The estimates, which are based on hedonic price equations with the degree of radioactive contamination measured by airborne surveys, indicate that the contamination decreased the price of residential land and imply a substantial willingness to pay to avoid exposure to the radioactive fallout. The estimated total residential land depreciation ranges from 1.5 to 3.0 trillion yen, approximately equivalent to 15-30 billion US dollars, or about 0.13-0.25% of Japan’s total land value.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/fukushima-a-nuclear-war-without-a-war-the-unspoken-crisis-of-worldwide-nuclear-radiation/28870

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119017300232

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2017.02.005

by Daiji Kawaguchi, 1 and Norifumi Yukutake 2 

1. Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan

2. College of Economics, Nihon University, Misaki-cho 1-3-2, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8360, Japan

Journal of Urban Economics via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com

Available online 2 March 2017; In Press, Accepted Manuscript

Keywords: Willingness to Pay; Fukushima; Nuclear Power Plant; Land Property Damage; Radioactive Contamination; Land Contamination

Comprehensive Wealth in Canada - Measuring what matters in the long run

Comprehensive wealth focuses on the role of people, the environment and the economy in creating and sustaining well-being. Complementing indicators like gross domestic product (GDP) and addressing issues the can’t capture on their own, comprehensive wealth measures are key to successfully guiding Canada through the 21st century and beyond.

This study reviewed Canada’s comprehensive wealth performance over the 33-year period from 1980 to 2013. This timeframe extends well beyond business and political cycles, ensuring that the results reveal trends free from the ebb and flow of markets and policies. The report found that comprehensive wealth grew slowly in Canada between 1980 and 2013 (0.19 per cent annually in real per capita terms). This was in contrast to relatively robust growth in real per capita consumption of goods and services (1.36 per cent annually). The divergence between these two trends points to potential concerns for long-term well-being.

In terms of the components of comprehensive wealth:

• Produced capital was the bright spot, growing by 1.68% annually from 1980 to 2013, though most (70%) of this growth was concentrated in the oil and gas extraction industry and housing
• Market natural capital (fossil fuels, timber, minerals and farmland) declined by 0.93% annually (for a total drop of 25%)
• Non-market natural capital (ecosystems and climate) declined based on a set of non-monetary indicators
• Human capital, which accounts for about 80% of Canada’s comprehensive wealth, did not grow at all, meaning that average lifetime earnings prospects in 2013 were no better than in 1980
• Social capital appears to have been stable based on a suite of non-monetary indicators.

Comprehensive Wealth rose 7%, or .19% per year from $592000 in 1980 to $631,000 in 2013 as Market Natural Capital fell from $39,800 to $29,200 per person.

http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/resource/comprehensive-wealth-canada-measuring-what-matters-long-run

Green Growth Knowledge Platform http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org

Source: International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

December, 2016

Study Sheds Light on Cost-Competitive Alternatives to ‘Buy And Dry’ - EDF urges Colorado policy makers to think differently about water management

A new economic study released January 11, 2017 by Environmental Defense Fund and WestWater Research shows that Alternative Transfer Methods (ATMs) are cost competitive with traditional water acquisition methods, challenging the conventional wisdom in Colorado that it’s too expensive and risky for municipalities to lease water.

ATMs are techniques for temporarily allocating and distributing agricultural water between different users, providing more flexibility to both agriculture producers and municipalities and reducing the need to permanently transfer water rights, which can result in “buy and dry”.

To satisfy the water supply needs of Colorado’s growing population, municipalities have been buying up agricultural land for its water rights. This practice of “buy and dry” is projected to take 500,000-700,000 acres of agricultural land out of production by 2050, or roughly 20% of irrigated farmland in the state.

“We’ve known for a long time that ATMs are better for farms and ranches, better for rural communities and better for the environment,” said Brian Jackson, EDF Associate Director. “And now we can add ‘cost effective’ to the list of benefits.”

http://blogs.edf.org/growingreturns/2017/01/18/leasing-water-a-novel-idea-to-combat-buy-and-dry-in-colorado/

Colorado’s Water Plan, approved in 2015, promotes the use of more ATMs, setting a policy goal of 50,000 acre-feet of ATM projects in place by 2030. Progress towards this goal has lagged due to a number of technical, legal and financial challenges.

But according to the EDF/WestWater study, new policies and state initiatives have begun to ease these challenges, opening the door for ATMs to be used more broadly. “We wanted to see if these changes had the potential to make ATMs easier and less costly to implement,” said Brett Bovee, WestWater Intermountain Regional Director.

The answer is yes. And with wider adoption of ATMs and other water conservation measures, the need for “buy and dry” and water storage projects will be diminished. “This presents a new opportunity for cities to help sustain agriculture, minimize costs and incorporate environmental benefits while planning to meet water supply needs.” said Bovee.

The report identified example ATMs in Colorado and other Western states, and selected two municipalities – the Town of Windsor and the City of Fountain in Colorado – to serve as case-studies. Using a 30-year financial model and accounting for recent changes in Colorado’s water right laws, the report found that ATM approaches had similar, and in some cases, less expensive costs when compared with permanent water right acquisitions.

For example, in the Town of Windsor, researchers compared an ATM lease agreement with a permanent water right acquisition to address projected shortages over a 30-year period. The ATM lease agreement was found to save an average of $200 per acre-foot per year over the traditional approach.

Beach Recreationalists' Willingness to Pay and Economic Implications of Coastal Water Quality Problems in Hawaii

Abstract:

The economic value of water quality is poorly understood in Hawaii. Quantifying the economic value of coastal water quality would inform policy decisions that impact the coast and help justify expenditures in water quality improvements. We conducted a non-market valuation of beach recreationalists’ preferences and willingness to pay for water quality and associated attributes at Oahu beaches. Using a discrete choice experiment analyzed by a conditional logit model, results suggest individuals were willing to pay $11.43 per day at the beach to reduce days of bacterial exceedance from 11 to 5 per year, a further $30.72 to reduce it to no bacterial exceedances at all. WTP to move from 15 ft to 30 ft of underwater visibility was $35.71, a further $14.80 to increase from 30 ft to 60 ft. Respondents were also willing to pay $15.33 to improve coral reef cover from 10% to 25%, a further $4.89 to improve to 45% cover. WTP for moving from 9 fish species to 18 species was $7.14, a further $2.47 to increase that to 27 fish species. These environmental improvements can improve Oahu recreationalists’ welfare by $205 million, $550 million, $639 million, $265 million, $274 million, $88 million, $128 million, and $44 million per year, respectively. Welfare gains may justify increased spending in management and restoration of coastal ecosystems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sea_turtles_on_beach_in_hawaii.jpg

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916300829

by Marcus Peng 1 and Kirsten L.L. Oleson 1 and 2

1. University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, 1910 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

2. University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI, USA

Ecological Economics via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com

Volume 136, June 2017, Pages 41–52, Available online 17 February 2017

Keywords: Non-market valuation; Discrete choice experiment; Water quality; Underwater visibility; Coral reefs; Fish diversity; Beach recreation; Oahu; Hawaii

What are Households Willing to Pay for Improved Water Access? Results from a Meta-Analysis

Abstract:

Although several factors contribute to low rates of access to improved water and sanitation in the developing world, it is especially important to understand and measure household demand for these services. One valuable source of information regarding demand is the growing empirical literature that has applied stated preference methods to estimate households' willingness to pay (WTP). Because it is difficult to generalize and support planning based on this scattered literature, we conduct a meta-analysis to take stock of the worldwide sample of household WTP for improved drinking water services. Using 171 WTP estimates drawn from 60 studies, we first describe this sample and then examine the potential factors that explain variation in WTP estimates. Our results suggest that households are willing to pay between approximately $3 and $30 per month for improvements in water access. Specifically, in line with economic theory and intuition, WTP is sensitive to scope (the magnitude of improvement in drinking water services), as well as household income, and stated-preference elicitation method. We demonstrate how our results can be used to predict household-level WTP for selected improvements in drinking water access in regions with low coverage, and find that private benefits exceed the cost of provision.

http://www.goodnet.org/articles/15-genius-new-inventions-that-make-world-better-place

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916308953
by George L. Van Houtven 1, Subhrendu K. Pattanayak 2, Faraz Usmani 3, Jui-Chen Yang 4 formerly 1 

1. RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA

2. Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

3. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

4. Pacific Economic Research, LLC, Bellevue, WA, USA

Ecological Economics via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com

Volume 136; June, 2017; Pages 126–135; Available online 23 February 2017

Keywords: Meta-analysis; Water; Sanitation; Contingent valuation; Willingness to pay

Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver at the Right Time?

Abstract:

Electricity cannot be cost-effectively stored even for short periods of time. Consequently, wholesale electricity prices vary widely across hours of the day with peak prices frequently exceeding off-peak prices by a factor of ten or more. Most analyses of energy-efficiency policies ignore this variation, focusing on total energy savings without regard to when those savings occur. In this paper we demonstrate the importance of this distinction using novel evidence from a rebate program for air conditioners in Southern California. We estimate electricity savings using hourly smart-meter data and show that savings tend to occur during hours when the value of electricity is high. This significantly increases the overall value of the program, especially once we account for the large capacity payments received by generators to guarantee their availability in high-demand hours. We then compare this estimated savings profile with engineering-based estimates for this program as well as a variety of alternative energy-efficiency investments. The results illustrate a surprisingly large amount of variation in economic value across investments.

...

Before smart meters and other advanced metering infrastructure, it was impossible to measure policy impacts at the hourly level.... Meters were only read once per billing cycle. This situation is rapidly changing. Today in the United States more than 40% of residential electricity customers have smart meters, up from less than 2% in 2007. ...

http://makinghouseswork.cchrc.org/2012/the-paybacks-of-energy-efficiency-investments/

Savings are strongly correlated with the value of electricity, making the program 48% more valuable than under a naive calculation ignoring timing. As we demonstrate, including capacity payments is important in this calculation. Most of the value of electricity in ultra-peak hours is captured by forward capacity payments to generators to guarantee their availability

...

Across six major U.S. markets, we find that air conditioning investments are on average 29% more valuable than under a naive calculation ignoring timing. 

For commercial and industrial heat pumps and chillers the "timing premiums" are 29% and 

25%, respectively. Other investments like refrigerators and freezers have timing premiums 

below 5% because savings are only weakly correlated with value. Lighting also does surprisingly poorly, reflecting that savings occur disproportionately during evening and winter 

hours when electricity tends to be less valuable.

...

Electric utilities in the United States, for example, spent $36 billion on energy-efficiency programs between 2006 and 2015, leading to more than 1.5 million gigawatt hours in reported total electricity savings. In addition, the U.S. Federal government has spent $12 billion since 2009 on income tax credits for residential energy-efficiency investments

...

Nine new standards promulgated by the DOE in 2016 achieve a total present value of $76 billion in energy cost savings, vs. $28 billion in avoided CO2 emissions and $5 billion in avoided NOx emissions.7 That is, more than two-thirds of the benefits come from private energy cost savings. Moreover, the hourly variation in external costs is small relative to the hourly variation in electricity prices and capacity values. Private value varies across hours by a factor of ten or more, while emission rates vary only by about a factor of two between fossil-fuel plants. 

...

Our empirical application is an energy-efficiency rebate program offered by Southern California Edison (SCE), a major investor-owned utility.... known as the Quality Installation Program. It provides incentives of up to $1,100 to households that install an energy-efficient central air conditioner.... Air conditioning is responsible for 10% of average residential electricity use and 15% of average commercial electricity use in California... Air conditioning is projected to be one of the fastest growing uses of electricity worldwide ....

The state utility commission compensates SCE for running the program by allowing the utility to pass on costs to ratepayers in the form of higher electricity prices. The Quality Installation Program includes an additional focus on proper installation of the new subsidized central air conditioner, which can further improve energy performance. 

...

The event study figure for summer shows a sharp decrease in electricity consumption in the year in which the new air conditioner is installed. The magnitude of the decrease is about 0.2 kilowatt hours per hour... As expected, winter consumption is essentially unchanged after the new air conditioner is installed.

...

On mild days, between 50 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit, estimated energy savings are zero or not statistically distinguishable from it.... From 70 to 100+ degrees, there is a steep, continuous relationship between temperature and energy savings, as expected from a new air conditioner. Air conditioner usage is largest on the hottest days, so energy-efficiency gains have the largest effect on these days. There is also a small decrease in consumption on days below 50 degrees following air conditioner replacement. This may be explained by improvements to ductwork, insulation, thermostats, or other HVAC-related upgrades that could in some cases occur as part of a central air conditioner replacement

...

During July and August there are large energy savings, particularly between noon and 10 p.m. Savings reach their nadir in the summer at 6 a.m. which is typically the coolest time of the day. During non-summer months savings are much smaller, less than 0:05 kilowatt hours saved on average per hour, compared to 0:2 to 0:3 kilowatt hours saved on average per hour during July and August.... The implied annual savings per household are 375 and 358 kilowatt hours per year, respectively.... Prior to installing a new air conditioner, program participants consumed an average of 9,820 kilowatt hours annually, so this is a 4.5% decrease in household consumption. A typical central air conditioner (3 ton, 13 SEER) in this region uses about 4,237 kilowatt hours per year, so the savings represent a 10% decrease in annual electricity consumption for air conditioning. This is broadly similar to, but slightly less than, what would be expected based on a simple engineering prediction. For example, a Department of Energy calculator shows that ignoring rebound and other factors a typical central air conditioner upgrade in Los Angeles saves 565 kilowatt hours per year.... Using hourly microdata, household by month-of-year by hour-of-day fixed effects, hour-of-sample by climate zone fixed effects, and the sample exclusions the estimate of annual program savings is 442 kilowatt hours per year.  16

...

Capacity payments are made to electricity generators to remain open and available, thereby ensuring desired reserve margins. Capacity costs are zero or close to it during off-peak hours because electricity demand can be easily met by existing inframarginal generators (plants that are not close to the margin between staying in the market and exiting). However, during peak hours large capacity payments are required to ensure desired reserve margins. 

Incorporating capacity values substantially increases the value of electricity during peak periods. In California during August, for example, capacity values increase the value of electricity during peak evening hours to between $200 and $600 per megawatt hour. And, overall, the pattern is very similar across the four approaches for allocating capacity value across hours....