Sunday, March 27, 2011

Innovation: How can governments boost green technologies?

http://www.oecd.org/document/8/0,3746,en_2649_37465_47343816_1_1_1_37465,00.html
Governments looking to boost their economies, create jobs and meet environmental targets see eco-innovation as part of the solution. Some subsidise research and development. Others stimulate demand by labelling energy efficient appliances and regulating against environmentally harmful products. All are looking for efficient policies to make it work.

Better Policies to Support Eco-innovation gives examples of what works well, and why, by comparing national strategies to develop and disseminate eco-innovation.

“With climate change and the depletion of natural resources threatening our future, we need to change the way we think, the way we live and the way we do business. We must develop new ideas and new technologies, and eco-innovation has a key role to play”, said OECD Secretary-General Angel GurrĂ­a.

The review notes that eco-innovation does not necessarily involve new knowledge or new technologies – it is as much about how and where we use existing technologies. Moreover, eco-innovation does not always start in the environmental domain. For example, carbon capture and storage technologies are largely based on technologies tested in the 1920s in the chemical sector.

Governments need to increase co-ordination amongst ministries and levels of government in order to promote eco-innovation. A comprehensive national strategy for eco-innovation can help to do this. The report shows that such strategies must take into account the size of the domestic market for environmental goods and services, the national capacity to innovate, and the vigour of the country's venture capital industry.

Other variables have to be factored in for specific innovations. As an illustration, in the case of electric cars, where technological options are many and mutually exclusive, countries can choose to shift swiftly to full electric cars, or use hybrids as a transition. The decision will depend on the size of the domestic market, urban density and the share of renewables in electricity generation. This example also highlights that countries confronted with huge uncertainty regarding technologies, environmental benefits, demand patterns, costs and economic models for innovative goods, should cooperate to do more research and encourage trials and experiments to explore the full scope of alternative technical options.

Another feature of the report is the analysis of the interactions between policies to support eco-innovation and market dynamics. The push for improved carbon capture and storage (CCS) provides a good illustration. In Canada, mature technologies are used by the oil and gas industry to enhance their operating efficiency. In Germany, where there is a price on carbon emissions, the power sector developed innovative CCS technologies to reduce the CO2 emitted by coal-fired power plants. France, where no gas is produced and power is predominantly generated through nuclear industry, has yet another economic interest in developing CCS technologies – it sells them to other countries.

The report is available at
http://www.oecd.org/document/34/0,3746,en_2649_34333_47305250_1_1_1_1,00.html
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development www.OECD.org
Press Release dated March 21, 2011

The Carbon Footprint of Spam

This report from McAfee finds that the energy consumed in transmitting and deleting junk email equals the amount of energy used by 2.4 million U.S. homes.

Among the findings from the report:
• An estimated worldwide total of 62 trillion spam emails were sent in 2008;
• Globally, annual spam energy use totals 33 billion kilowatt-hours (KWh), or 33 terawatt hours (TWh). That’s equivalent to the electricity used in 2.4 million homes in the United States, with the same GHG emissions as 3.1 million passenger cars using two billion United States gallons of gasoline;
• Spam filtering saves 135 TWh of electricity per year. That’s like taking 13 million cars off the road;
• The average GHG emission associated with a single spam message is 0.3 grams of CO2. That’s like driving three feet (one meter) in equivalent emissions, but when multiplied by the annual volume of spam, it’s like driving around the Earth 1.6 million times; • A year’s email at a typical medium-size business uses 50,000 KWh; more than one fifth of that annual use can be associated with spam

The full report is available for free download from McAfee.com at http://resources.mcafee.com/content/NACarbonFootprintSpam

McAfee www.McAfee.com
via www.Greenbiz.com
Published March 22, 2011 

On March 18, 2011 in "With Rustock, a New Twist on Fighting Internet Crime" at http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/222530/with_rustock_a_new_twist_on_fighting_internet_crime.html Robert McMillan of IDG News reported:

After infecting close to a million computers and spamming out as many as 30 billion unwanted email messages a day, the Rustock botnet went silent around 11 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.

Now we know the reason why: a small group of computer researchers, backed by Microsoft's lawyers, U.S. Marshals and international law enforcement officers executed a number of surgical strikes on the botnet. Hitting it as if it were the mythical Hydra, they cut off Rustock's heads -- its command-and-control servers -- and scorched them to keep them from growing back. And now Microsoft is helping to clean up infected computers before Rustock's owners have a chance to regain control of their botnet.

With seizure warrants in their hands, and U.S. Marshals backing them up, Microsoft's lawyers descended on five hosting providers in U.S. cities such as Kansas City, Scranton, Denver, Dallas, and Chicago on Wednesday and "successfully severed the IP addresses that controlled the botnet, cutting off communication and disabling it," Microsoft said in a blog posting.

Rustock is one nasty piece of software. It gives the criminals control over an infected machine to send spam, attack another computer, or spy on the victim. It's installed by tricking a victim into visiting a malicious Web site or opening a specially coded email attachment -- and it is very difficult to detect and remove.

The botnet is notorious for sending out pharmaceutical spam, and its demise should put a further dent in global spam volumes, which have been down since two other major spamming botnets, Pushdo and Bredolab, were taken offline late last year.

On March 22, 2011 BBC News reported that the Rustock takedown has reduced spam significantly

Gujarat coral reefs a virtual gold mine - Yahoo! News

http://in.news.yahoo.com/gujarat-coral-reefs-virtual-gold-mine-20110326-225016-207.html
... Gujarat's coral reefs in the Gulf of Kutch [are] ... helping the state generate or notionally gain Rs.7.95 million ($177,158) [per square kilometer] annually in various sectors, including fisheries and tourism [according to] ... a study commissioned by the state on economic valuation of coral reefs spread over nearly 250 sq km in the gulf....

The entire three-dimensional, shallow water structures in the Gulf of Kutch are estimated to have an economic value of around Rs.2,200 million every year ....

Considered a cradle of evolution, coral reefs provide habitat for commercially valuable fish, harbour vast biodiversity with unknown potential uses, provide varied and high value benefits but continue to be threatened by varied human activities.

The study covered benefits from the coral reefs accruing to sectors like fisheries, tourism and recreation, new drug and biochemicals and building materials. It also tried to monetise their natural gains like prevention of coastal salinity ingress and development of biodiversity.

'The maximum value is for fisheries followed by coastal protection and biodiversity benefit....

According to the member-secretary, it is for the first time that the value of coral reefs in preventing salinity ingress along the coastal aquifer has been reported.

... Any decline in the 'coral health' would entail loss in the values and subsequent decline in societal well-being....

The study was ordered because the coral reef ecosystem, like many other ecosystems, is severely threatened all over the world because of over- exploitation through commercial fishing, coral mining, pollution and climate change. ...

'Gujarat's Gulf of Kutch is considered very unique in terms of ecology and location -except for the Red Sea, the coral reefs here are at Earth's northernmost limits,' he said.

'A drastic decline in the health of coral reefs all over the globe which help reduce the impact of the waves on the shore has a direct bearing on the rising erosion and beach loss and increasing damage from storms,'....

The Gulf of Kutch, about 170 km long and 75 km wide, encompasses an area of 7,350 sq km and lies between the Kutch mainland and the Saurashtra peninsula along the Gujarat coast.

Coral reefs, mangroves, lagoons and sea-bed grass are part of a mosaic of its natural ecosystems which make up the entire gamut of coastal and marine systems.

The high productivity of coral reefs, which contain more species per unit area than any other ecosystem, within these otherwise unproductive waters makes them critical to the survival of the ecosystems and hence human beings, the study said.

Globally, many people depend in part or wholly on coral reefs for their livelihood and around eight percent (0.5 billion people) of the world's population lives within 100 km of coral reef ecosystems.
According to the Gujarat study, the average annual fish catch value for the entire Jamnagar district was about Rs.3,138 million. For the coral-associated fishing areas, the fish catch value was about Rs.1,431 million - almost half of the total.

Thus, any changes in coral reef health will have significant impact on fish productivity and total revenue generation, it said.

According to the study, a total annual fish value of Rs.1,284 million could be linked to the coral reefs and its associated systems in the Gulf of Kutch, which leads to a fish value of Rs.4.64 million per year per sq km.
During 2008-09, the total fish production in Gujarat was estimated at 766,000 tonnes, worth Rs.30.63 billion. The marine fish production constituted about 89.16 percent of the total fish production, the study said.

by R.K. Misra
Yahoo News www.Yahoo.com
Also see:
Socio-Economic and Ecological Benefits of Mangrove Plantation A Study of Community Based Mangrove Restoration Activities in Gujarat sponsored by the Gujarat Ecology Commission (GEC) Gandhinagarat t http://www.gec.gov.in/pdf/GIDR%20Report.pdf and
Valuing the Services of Coral Reef Systems for Sustainable Coastal Management: A Case Study of the Gulf of Kachchh, India by Lalit Kumar, University of Delhi, Delhi and Pushpam Kumar, University of Liverpool, UK at http://www.isee2010.org/paper/25ps0603%23Valuing%20The%20Services%20Of%20Coral%20Ecosystems%23_Kumar,Lalit_.pdf

Wasteful waste-reducing policies? The impact of waste reduction policy instruments on collection and processing costs of municipal solid waste

Abstract: We study the impact of some local policies aimed at municipal solid waste (MSW) reduction on the cost efficiency of MSW collection and disposal. We explicitly account for differences between municipalities in background conditions by using a bootstrapped version of the Data Envelopment Analysis methodology in combination with a matching technique. Using data on 299 municipalities in Flanders, Belgium, for the year 2003, our results indicate that municipalities that are member of a waste collection joint venture, or that subscribe to a voluntary agreement to reduce MSW at the highest ambition level, collect and process MSW more efficiently than other municipalities. Weekly instead of two-weekly waste collection, or using a weight-based pricing system appears to have no impact on efficiency. Our results show that aiming at MSW reduction does not lead to lower efficiency of public service provision, even on the contrary.

by Simon De Jaeger, a, b, Johan Eyckmansa, b, Nicky Roggea, b and Tom Van Puyenbroecka, b

a Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUBrussel), Centre for Research on Economic Markets and their Environments (CREME), Stormstraat 2, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium Tel.: +32 2 608 82 55; fax: +32 2 217 64 64.
b Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KULeuven), Faculty of Business and Economics, Naamsestraat 69, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium
Waste Management via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com 
Article in Press, Corrected Proof - Received 25 June 2010; accepted 24 February 2011. Available online 22 March 2011.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

The economic costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions under a U.S. national renewable electricity mandate

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.042
 Abstract: The electricity sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the U.S. Many states have passed and Congress has considered Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), mandates that specific percentages of electricity be generated from renewable resources. We perform a technical and economic assessment and estimate the economic costs and net GHG reductions from a national 25 percent RPS by 2025 relative to coal-based electricity. This policy would reduce GHG emissions by about 670 million metric tons per year, 11 percent of 2008 U.S. emissions. The first 100 million metric tons could be abated for less than $36/metric ton. However, marginal costs climb to $50 for 300 million metric tons and to as much as $70/metric ton to fulfill the RPS. The total economic costs of such a policy are about $35 billion annually. We also examine the cost sensitivity to favorable and unfavorable technology development assumptions. We find that a 25 percent RPS would likely be an economically efficient method for utilities to substantially reduce GHG emissions only under the favorable scenario. These estimates can be compared with other approaches, including increased R&D funding for renewables or deployment of efficiency and/or other low-carbon generation technologies.

Research highlights
...
► Depending on technological development, economic costs are $13-$45 billion per year.
► Lower costs depend on favorable technological progress.
Article Outline
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Estimating costs and quantities
2.2. Estimating potential net reductions of GHG emissions
2.3. Scenarios
3. Costs and GHG emissions of renewable sources of electricity
3.1. Hydropower: technologies, quantities and prices, and net GHG emissions
3.2. Electricity from wind
3.2.1. Technologies and barriers to deployment
3.2.2. Quantities and costs of wind
3.2.3. Potential net reductions in GHG emissions with wind power
3.3. Electricity from biomass
3.3.1. Technologies and barriers to deployment
3.3.2. Quantities and costs of biomass
3.3.3. Potential net reductions in GHG emissions with biomass
3.4. Electricity from geothermal
3.4.1. Technologies and barriers to deployment
3.4.2. Quantities and prices of geothermal electricity
3.4.3. Potential net reductions in GHG emissions
3.5. Solar: technologies, quantities and prices, and net GHG emissions
4. Calculating aggregate costs and reductions in GHG emissions
4.1. Economic costs of substituting renewables for coal
4.2. Uncertainties
5. Results and discussion
5.1. Additional costs of electricity generated by renewable sources of energy
5.2. Reductions in GHG emissions
5.3. Other estimates
5.4. Meeting proposed mandates in recent legislation
5.5. Policy implications
by Keith Cranea, , Aimee E. Curtrightb, David S. Ortizb, Constantine Samarasb and Nicholas Burgera
a RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202, USA Tel.: +1 703 413 1100; fax: +1 703 413 8111.
b RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
Energy Policy via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com 
Article in Press, Corrected Proof -
Received 28 July 2010; 
accepted 4 February 2011. 
Available online 23 March 2011

Keywords: Renewable portfolio standards; Greenhouse gas emissions; Technology development

City of Dallas Partners with Lumetech and - Expects 60% ReLighting Science Group to Go Green with Energy Efficient LED Lighting in its Parking Garages

http://www.lsgc.com/corporate/press/releases/391-city-of-dallas-partners-with-lumetech-and-lighting-science-group-to-go-green-with-energy-efficient-led-lighting-in-its-parking-garages
Lumetech Group, a ... provider of commercial LED lighting solutions, and Lighting Science Group (OTCBB: LSCG), a ... American maker of LED lighting, announced on March 24, 2011 the conversion of five downtown parking garages to energy efficient LED lighting, positioning Dallas as the first major city in the United States to adopt this energy and cost saving technology.
...
Lighting Science Group’s long-lasting and ultra-efficient Flat LowBay LED fixtures were installed in garages at Dallas City Hall, Dallas Public Library, the Jack Evans Police Building, the freight terminal beneath Thanksgiving Square and the Morton H. Meyerson Symphony Center. It is estimated that the annual energy savings for the City of Dallas will be in excess of 1,700,000 kWh or a 60% reduction in annual energy use. In addition, as a result of the enhanced performance and reliability of the new lighting, the City of Dallas expects to reduce substantial cost of maintenance over the lifetime of the fixtures.
...
The announcement comes on the heels of Lumetech’s completion of Dallas County School’s parking lots that will result in an estimated annual energy savings of over 505,000 kWh per year and approximately $363,600 in electricity and maintenance over the lifetime of the fixtures.

Lumetech http://lumetech.com.
Press Release dated March 24, 2011
via/hat tip www.Smartplanet.com

Eco-efficiency of the world cement industry: A data envelopment analysis

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.057
Abstract: Chemical reactions and the combustion of dirty fuels, such as coal and petroleum coke (petcoke), that are used in cement production processes generate a significant amount of CO2 emissions. In this paper, we provide an eco-efficiency measure for 21 prototypes of cement industries operating in many countries by applying both a data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a directional distance function approach, which are particularly suitable for models where several production inputs and desirable and undesirable outputs are taken into account. To understand whether this eco-efficiency is due to a rational utilization of inputs or to a real carbon dioxide reduction as a consequence of environmental regulation, we analyze the cases where CO2 emissions can either be considered as an input or as an undesirable output. Empirical results show that countries where cement industries invest in technologically advanced kilns and adopt alternative fuels and raw materials in their production processes are eco-efficient. This gives a comparative advantage to emerging countries, such as India and China, which are incentivized to modernize their production processes.
by G. Oggionia, E-mail The Corresponding Author, R. Riccardia, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author, E-mail The Corresponding Author and R. Toninellib, E-mail The Corresponding Author

a University of Brescia, Faculty of Economics, Department of Quantitative Methods, IT-25122 Brescia, Italy
b University of Pisa, Faculty of Economics, Department of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, IT-56124 Pisa, Italy
Energy Policy 
Article in Press, Corrected Proof,
Received 20 September 2010; accepted 14 February 2011. Available online 21 March 2011. 
Keywords: Data envelopment analysis; Undesirable output; Environmental regulation

Enercon’s India Venture Turns Sour German - Energy Company Hits Headwinds in Indiacom

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/business/global/24enercon.html 
...
For Enercon of Germany, one of the world’s biggest makers of wind turbines, India is shaping up as a disaster.

The company says it has just lost its entire Indian subsidiary, a major operation with annual sales of more than $566 million, after a dispute with a local partner and a run-in with Mumbai law enforcement authorities.

Enercon also says it has lost control of its patents in India and fears its technology could be appropriated by competitors in a country where wind energy is a big and growing market.
...
Lately, foreign companies and investors have started to grow weary of the country’s endemic corruption, weak infrastructure and government limits on foreign investment in industries like insurance and retailing. Foreign direct investment in India fell by more than 31 percent in 2010, compared with the previous year.

Enercon, based in Aurich, near Germany’s windswept North Sea coast, portrays its Indian debacle as a government-abetted theft of its joint venture with a local partner.

That account is strenuously disputed by a lawyer for the partner, a businessman named Yogesh Mehra, who is also an executive member of the Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association.
...
Around 2005, according to Enercon, the partners started to argue about company strategy. The Germans wanted to move cautiously and invest profits in the business. But Enercon says Mr. Mehra wanted fast growth with an eye toward a stock market listing.
...
India is the world’s fifth largest user of wind power, and is adding capacity fast. The country’s biggest wind supplier by far is India’s Suzlon, but others, including General Electric, are also here.

As the partners debated strategy in September 2008, two Enercon executives were summoned to police headquarters in Mumbai and questioned for at least five hours, according to the executives. They say police officials told them that they were suspected of conspiring against their Indian partners.
...
Enercon executives say that Mr. Mehra, though a minority shareholder, progressively cut the German executives off from information and shut them out of management decisions. They say they believe they have been effectively banished from India.

“We have completely written off our investment in Enercon India,” said Mr. Knottnerus-Meyer.
...
In late 2006, Aloys Wobben, the chairman and managing director of Enercon, offered 40 million euros ($56.9 million) to buy a 6 percent stake in the Indian company from Mr. Mehra. But a few weeks later he amended his proposal to 40 million euros for a 12 percent stake, according to Mr. Parthasarathy.
...
To be sure, Enercon has a bit of a history of misadventure abroad. The company has never exported to the United States, after losing a court dispute there in the mid-1990s, in which a wind turbine maker, now defunct, accused Enercon of infringing on its patents.

The decision resulted in Enercon’s being banned from the United States for several years. The ban was later lifted, but the experience soured Mr. Wobben on the American market, Mr. Knottnerus-Meyer said.

by Jack Ewing and Vikas Bajaj
The New York Times www.NYTimes.com
March 23, 2011
FOR FULL STORY GO TO:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/business/global/24enercon.html

Benefits of Investing in Water and Sanitation

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/benefits-of-investing-in-water-and-sanitation_9789264100817-en
The provision of water supply, sanitation and wastewater services generates substantial benefits for public health, the economy and the environment. Benefit-to-cost ratios can be as high as 7 to 1 for basic water and sanitation services in developing countries.

Wastewater treatment interventions, for example, generate significant benefits for public health, the environment and for certain economic sectors such as fisheries, tourism and property markets.

The full magnitude of the benefits of water services is seldom considered for a number of reasons, including the difficulty in quantifying important non-economic benefits such as non-use values, dignity, social status, cleanliness and overall well-being. Also, information about the benefits of water services is usually hidden in the technical literature, where it remains invisible to key decision-makers in ministries.

This report draws together and summarizes existing information on the benefits of water and sanitation.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) www.OECD.org
Publication Date : March 17, 2011
ISBN : 9789264100817 (PDF) ; 9789264100541 (print)
DOI : 10.1787/9789264100817-en

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

SunWork Brings Solar to Underserved Markets

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/SunWork-Brings-Solar-to-Underserved-Markets/
If you have a rather modest electric bill, rooftop solar doesn't always make sense. The same thing applies if you have a rather modest income.

SunWork, a 501c3 non-profit, trains volunteers to install solar systems on the homes of low energy users.... SunWork performs the design and installation,... as well as doing all the rebate and interconnect paperwork.

Since the labor content in a SunWork installation is zero, SunWork's average installed cost per watt is 25 percent less than that of the next lowest installer in the their operating territory of California's San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.

The firm works on residential rooftops in the 1.5-kilowatt to 3.5-kilowatt size. Costs to the end user are in the $4.00 to $5.00 per watt range before subsidies and $2.75 to $3.00 after subsidies. So, the rough cost of a system is $5,000 to $10,000 after subsidies. The firm installs mostly REC and SolarWorld panels for their low embedded energy and domestic content, respectively.

Unlike the cutthroat solar companies we usually deal with at Greentech Media, SunWork's CEO Reuben Veek simply wants to spread the word, grow the business slowly and provide vocational training for interested workers....

The firm hasn't taken any government funding and would be comfortable and financially self-sufficient installing 8.5 kilowatts or more a month. The firm has 'assembled a great pool of volunteers without any concerted recruitment effort to speak of, and [...] the pool of people eager to volunteer on installations out of interest in green job retraining handily outstrips available volunteer spots,' according to the CEO.

As proof of the success of the program, some of SunWork's installers have gone on to jobs with major solar installers.
...
Links to the California Solar statistics website that show the stark difference in price between SunWork and other installers are here and here. And here are some overwhelmingly positive reviews from SunWork's customers.

by Eric Wesoff:
www.greentechmedia.com
February 22, 2011
FOR FULL STORY GO TO:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/SunWork-Brings-Solar-to-Underserved-Markets/

New irrigation system helps farmers conserve water - SmartPlanet

http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/thinking-tech/new-irrigation-system-helps-farmers-conserve-water/6602/
...
Recent studies project that water demand in many countries will exceed supply by 40 percent by the year 2030. However, about 90 percent of the world’s water consumption is being tapped to produce food and energy, meaning nations that can effectively manage their water supply would likely be in the best position to nourish economic prosperity.

China has already begun thinking a few steps ahead and recently announced plans to pour the equivalent of $600 billion over the next 10 years into conservation technologies and revamping their water management infrastructure.... The drought-prone nation has been exploring potential solutions to wasteful irrigation practices....

Driptech, a small Silicon Valley-based water technology firm, hopes to play a major role in that effort. The company has developed ... a simple network of polyethylene plastic tubing with strategically placed holes that allow just enough water to drip into to the roots of crops.... [Alternative] expensive large-scale pressurized irrigation systems ... require the complete flooding of large plots of farmland. The [Driptech] technology costs $100 dollars and can reduce water usage by 30 percent. In India, it’s the farmer that’s responsible for paying for water and diesel pumps.... In China, the government benefits more, because they’re responsible for providing water.

The Chinese government has given the go-ahead to a pilot program in the Shanxi province....

By Tuan C. Nguyen
SmartPlanet.com
March 22, 2011
FOR FULL STORY GO TO:
http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/thinking-tech/new-irrigation-system-helps-farmers-conserve-water/6602/

The Imaginary World in Which Washington Lives

http://www.truth-out.org/the-imaginary-world-which-washington-lives68627
...
The flood of nonsense .... At the top of the list is the steady stream of senators or members of Congress whose response to higher gas prices is to insist on drilling in every square inch of environmentally sensitive territory in the country. This is supposed to reduce our dependence on imported oil and lower the price of gas. Both sides of this assertion are absurd.

According to the Energy Information Agency, the United States has proven reserves of 22.3 billion barrels of oil. Given our current rate of consumption of 6.9 billion barrels a year, US reserves could meet our demand for oil for less than 3.5 years. That means if we could somehow drill here, now and everywhere, we could be energy independent until the middle of 2014 and then we would be 100 percent dependent on imported oil.

Of course, we cannot suddenly suck all the oil out of the ground at once, it takes time to explore and drill wells and then the oil must be drilled out over time. If we decided that we want to destroy every last national park and coastal region, we may be able to increase production by 1.0-1.5 million barrels a day in five to ten years. At the high end, this would be a bit less than 2 percent of world supply.

Given normal assumptions about how demand responds to price, we would be very lucky to see a 6 percent decline in the price of oil. This means that, in the most optimistic drill-everywhere scenario, we would save less than 20 cents from our $4 a gallon gas. More likely, the savings would be less than half this size.
...
by: Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research
t r u t h o u t | News Analysis www.truthout.com
March 23, 2011
FOR FULL STORY GO TO:
http://www.truth-out.org/the-imaginary-world-which-washington-lives68627

Addressing onsite sampling in recreation site choice models

Abstract: Independent experts and politicians have criticized statistical analyses of recreation behavior that rely upon onsite samples due to their potential for biased inference. The use of onsite sampling usually reflects data or budgetary constraints but can lead to two primary forms of bias in site choice models. First, the strategy entails sampling site choices rather than sampling individuals– a form of bias called endogenous stratification. Under these conditions, sample choices may not reflect the site choices of the true population. Second, exogenous attributes of the individuals sampled onsite may differ from the attributes of individuals in the population – the most common form in recreation demand is avidity bias. We propose addressing these biases by combining two existing methods, Weighted Exogenous Stratification Maximum Likelihood Estimation and propensity score estimation. We use the National Marine Fisheries Service’s Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey to illustrate methods of bias reduction, employing both simulated and empirical applications. We find that propensity score based weights can significantly reduce bias in estimation. Our results indicate that failure to account for these biases can overstate anglers’ willingness to pay for improvements in fishing catch, but weighted models exhibit higher variance of parameter estimates and willingness to pay.

In a full free version of the paper available at http://www.ecu.edu/cs-educ/econ/upload/ecu1002-20100331-AddressingOnsiteSamplingInRecreationSiteChoiceModels-Landry.pdf the authors point out:
...
As we found in the simulated exercise, the unweighted estimators appear to suffer from upward bias in the WTP measures for one additional caught fish. We find that the weighting strategy leads to a 31% decrease in the WTP for an additional inshore species and a 6% decrease in the WTP for an additional reef species. We do not find statistically significant WTP measures for changes in catch of offshore or pelagic species.
...
Utilizing our simulated dataset with an unweighted estimator, on average, we find point estimates of WTP for changes in fishing catch to be biased upward by 45%. When we only account for endogenous stratification, the point estimates for WTP are still biased upward by 39% on average. In the presence of both endogenous stratification and size-biased sampling, the avidity weight, which only accounts for size-biased sampling, actually increases the bias in point estimates to an average of 89%.

The table below displays key Willingness-to-pay results:


by Paul Hindsley 1* Craig E. Landry 2 and Brad Gentner 3
1. Environmental Studies, Eckerd College, St. Petersburg, FL 33711 hindslpr@eckerd.edu
2. Department of Economics, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858 landryc@ecu.edu
3. Gentner Consulting Group, Silver Spring, MD 20901 brad@gentnergroup.com
* Corresponding author
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Article in Press, Accepted Manuscript
, Available online March 21, 2011
Keywords: On-site sampling; Propensity score weighting; Recreation demand; Random utility models