This
present work evaluates the performance of extreme bike scenarios for
partners-cities of the Central Europe project “BICY”. With extreme bike
scenarios we mean that a city has implemented the best possible
conditions for cycling. Our analyses confirm that approximately half of
all urban trips are less than five km and could be done by bike. Some
cities in the Netherlands have shown that bike mode shares of 40% and
higher can be achieved. The question is how much cycling infrastructure
and investments are required to convert a city into a top cycling city
and what would be the benefits?
For the purpose of
establishing a quantitative relation between infrastructure investments,
increase in cycling and effects on the environment and health, we
reduce the cycling conditions to the presence of cycling infrastructure.
It is shown that such a reduction is a conservative assumption as
promotion, mobility management and education are low cost measures to
increase bike mode share even without expanding the cycling network. The
health benefits have been calculated using the HEAT framework developed
by the World Health Organization. This is a standard to determine the
costs of lives saved due to reduced mortality as a consequence of more
physical exercise.
Gathering official data and
detailed information from mobility surveys in 13 central European cities
with low to medium-high cycling levels, we have estimated the potential
bike share with an average of approximately 50%, the required cycling
infrastructure necessary to reach the potential between 30 and 370 km of
exclusive bikeways and cycling infrastructure costs between
10-60Million. The expected benefits/cost ratios have been found between
1.2 and 15, average 5.7. However, analyses of current stated preferences
show that the share of persons willing to start cycling is far less than
the potential, even if ideal cycling conditions were provided.
Corresponding author. Tel.: 
+39 051 209 3338; fax: +39 051 209 3337
Volume 111, 5 February 2014, Pages 508–517
Transportation: Can we do more with less resources? – 16th Meeting of the Euro Working Group on Transportation – Porto 2013
Keywords: bicycling; cost-benefit analysis; CBA; HEAT; health impact assessment; transport economics; life expectancy; transport policy
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