Friday, June 17, 2016

Unprepared for a Risky Future

...A [May, 2016 report from the World Bank] is warning that the world is ill-prepared for an increasing rise in disasters, spurred by climate change, rising populations and increasing vulnerability of people in large cities and unregulated housing.

The report, The Making of a Riskier Future: How Our Decisions are Shaping the Future of Disaster Risk, calls for a radical new approach to assessing risk, which takes into account extremely rapid changes in global disaster risk. Annual total damages from disasters have been increasing for decades and models show that population growth and rapid urbanization could put 1.3 billion people and $158 trillion in assets at risk from river and coastal floods by 2050.

In examining literature and case studies from around the globe, the report cites studies showing that densely populated coastal cities are sinking and when coupled with rising sea levels, annual losses in 136 coastal cities could increase from US$6 billion in 2010 to US$1,000 billion in 2070.

It also cites research warning that in Indonesia, river flood risk may increase 166 percent over the next 30 years due to rapid expansion of urban areas, while the country’s coastal flood risk could rise by 445 percent. Earthquake risk in Kathmandu is expected to double to 50 percent by 2045 due to informal building expansion.
File:Trapped woman on a car roof during flash flooding in Toowoomba 2.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood

At the heart of effective disaster risk management is reliable and accessible risk information. To help catalyze a move towards dynamic, accessible, and actionable risk information, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the World Bank are also releasing ThinkHazard!the first of its kind open-source platform to provide hazard information and recommendations of how to reduce risk across eight hazards including earthquakes, floods, tsunamis and cyclones for 196 countries....

Annual total damage (averaged over a 10-year period) has increased tenfold between 1976–1985 and 2005–2014, from US$14 billion to more than US$140 billion. Average population affected each year has risen from around 60 million people (1976–1985) to over 170 million (2005–2014).
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An analysis of hurricane loss by Rhodium Group LLC (2014) used projected change in hurricane frequency and intensity plus the impact of sea-level rise to show that annual losses in the United States (East Coast and Gulf of Mexico only) could rise by as much as US$62 billion to US$91 billion by the end of the century compared to present day.
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500 wildfires around Moscow, Russia, during the hottest summer for 400 years, resulting in crop failure of about 25 percent, 55,000 deaths, and economic losses of US$15 billion (2010); and 3 million acres of burnt land in four southern U.S. states during a record heat wave and drought, resulting in US$6–8 billion in economic loss (2011).
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“With climate change and rising numbers of people in urban areas rapidly driving up future risks, there’s a real danger the world is woefully unprepared for what lies ahead,”  said John Roome, the World Bank Group’s Senior Director for Climate Change. “Unless we change our approach to future planning for cities and coastal areas that takes into account potential disasters, we run the real risk of locking in decisions that will lead to drastic increases in future losses. “
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Estimated global population exposed to river and coastal flood is expected to increase from 992 million in 2010 to 1.3 billion in 2050, with corresponding assets increasing from US$46 trillion to US$158 trillion. Urban land exposed to floods increases from 44,000 km2 in 2010 to 72,000 km2 in 2050, with corresponding damage increasing from US$27 trillion to US$80 trillion in that period.
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Hallegatte et al. (2013) used estimates of capital production per person to estimate AAL due to coastal flood. They also included the effects of evolving vulnerability on annual flood loss by implementing two scenarios of flood protection and assumptions about levels of adaption in the future. Their analysis showed that socioeconomic change led to an increase in annual global flood loss in the 136 coastal cities, from US$6 billion to US$50 billion.  In 2050; when the additional effects of climate change and subsidence are included, the annual global loss in 2050 is over US$1 trillion. Under an adaptation scenario assuming that flood protection will be increased in height to maintain the probability of flooding at present levels, estimated losses by 2050 are limited to US$60 billion to US$63 billion.
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Kopp et al. 2014). The current annual average baseline of coastal storm damages to commercial and residential property, including business interruption along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, is estimated to be roughly $27 billion.
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Projections from Professor Kerry Emanuel (2013) for changes in hurricane frequency and intensity... showed that average annual damage from East Coast and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes will likely grow by between $3.0 billion and $7.3 billion by 2030, an 11–22 percent increase from current levels. By 2050, the combined impact of higher sea levels and modeled changes in hurricane activity will likely raise annual losses by between $11 billion and $23 billion, roughly twice as large an increase as that from changes in local sea levels alone. By the end of the century, the combined likely impact of sea-level rise and modeled changes in hurricane activity raise average annual losses by between $62 billion and $91 billion, three times as much as higher sea levels alone.
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In China, the average total economic loss due to subsidence is estimated at around US$1.5 billion per year, of which 80–90 percent is from indirect losses. In Shanghai, over the period 2001–2010, the total loss “International support for adaptation falls well short of what is needed. Latest estimates indicate that only 16% of international climate finance is currently dedicated to adaptation – a mere $4bn–$6bn per year of which is public finance cumulates to approximately US$2 billion (Tiefeng 2012). .. In 2006, the total cost of subsidence-related damage in the Netherlands was estimated at over €3.5 billion per year (Muntendam-Bos et al. 2006).
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Population is expected to rise by at least 40% in 14 of the 20 most populated cities in the world between 2015 and 2030, with some cities growing by 10 million people in that period. “Many of the largest cities are located in deltas and are highly prone to floods and other hazards, and as these cities grow, an ever greater number of people and more assets are at risk of disaster.” 


The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) www.gfdrr.org is a global partnership that helps developing countries better understand and reduce their vulnerabilities to natural hazards and adapt to climate change.

Press Release dated May 16, 2016

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