State Level Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Estimates

Abstract

This report reflects work performed under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. The research focused on applying the result of EPRI’s 2014 US Energy Efficiency Potential Study which was conducted at the Census division level and developing a method to apply the division level results to the state level by customer class and by end-use. The state allocation shows that every state has a large amount of electric energy efficiency potential that can be utilized as a cost-effective energy resource. This cost-effective electric potential grows over time as equipment reaches the end of its useful life and is replaced by a cost-effective efficient replacement. In total gigawatt-hours (GWh), this energy efficiency economic potential in 2035 ranges from 901 GWh in Vermont to 87,336 GWh in Texas, reflective of the both electric loads and the types electric services in each state. Finally, to understand the potential to bring additional technologies to market and the impact that added incentives can have on energy efficiency potential, the national model and state allocations were re-run with differing levels of incentives. These results, which vary by state, show both the direct impact of incentives as well as potential opportunities to increase energy efficiency through cost reductions.

Overview

The EPRI's 2014 study found 790,639 GWh of cost-effective electric energy efficiency available from 2012 to 2035, which represents 17.5% of baseline retail sales in 2035. Immediately following the study, stakeholder's expressed interest in state level energy efficiency potential analysis to aid in more localized energy planning. Updated analysis shows an estimate of 740,985 GWh of cost effective electric-energy efficiency economic potential from 2016 to 2036 with significant savings across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

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The report concludes that every state has a large amount of electric energy efficiency potential that can be utilized as a cost-effective energy resource. As equipment reaches the end of its useful life and is replaced by cost-effective energy efficient replacements, the cost-effective electric potential grows over time. The study estimates that state-level energy efficiency potential ranges from 12% in Missouri to 21% in Florida relative to adjusted baseline sales, with twenty six states showing more than 15% savings available cost-effectively between 2016 and 2035. Another important conclusion of the study is that there are numerous states that do not completely achieve their energy efficient economic potential (EP). Only twenty two states have developed programs that would be on track to achieve 100% of the model's cost savings by 2035. This is to say that there is still significant underinvestment in energy efficiency; in fact, 18 states would have captured less than 50% of the energy efficiency potential estimated by the EPRI model if they were to continue on the same historical trajectory. The role of incentives in energy efficiency potential was also analyzed. With $20/MWh, the EE economic potential increases by 102,848 GWh, which is a 13% increase over the case with no incentives involved.

The full report can be found here:

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/05/f34/epri_state_level_electric_energy_efficiency_potential_estimates_0.pdf

Project Manager: C. Holmes  and S. Mullen-Trento