Tree cover and property values in the United States: A national meta-analysis

Abstract

[A meta-analysis by Kent Kovacs, Grant West, David J. Nowak and Robert G. Haight] uses 21 hedonic property value studies and 157 unique observations to study the influence of tree cover on the value of homes in the United States. The authors construct elasticity estimates of the percentage change in home value for a 1% change in the percentage of tree cover around a home. Cluster weighted averages of the elasticities account for the housing market and the precision of the property price effects for tree cover on and off property and for three categories of tree cover density. Meta-regression models further control for the housing market and tree cover heterogeneity, the methodological techniques of the primary study, and publication bias. The Mundlak meta-regression model with controls for US regions has the lowest out-of-sample transfer error. The larger elasticity for off property tree cover than on property tree cover (unless tree density is 10% or lower) suggests that the property value of homes rises more if tree cover is not on land that homeowners are responsible for maintaining. The elasticity in neighborhoods with greater than 25% tree cover (0.013) is four times larger than the elasticity in neighborhoods with 0 to 10% tree cover (0.003).

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Their Mundlak model 2 predicts an $8.88 increase in the value of a single-family home in the Midwest for an on-property increase in tree cover of 0.18%.6 Assuming that the single-family home is on a half-acre lot (21,780 ft2) with an average tree cover of 18% (3920 ft2) (Table 2), they find that a 1% increase in the percentage tree cover amounts to an increase of 39 ft2. Suppose that a 24-in. dbh green ash tree has a crown radius of 35 ft. and a crown area of 962 ft2. A 1% increase in tree cover is equivalent to 0.04 additional 24-in. green ash trees on the property (39/962 = 0.04). The increase in property value for one green ash tree on the property is $8.88/0.04 = $222. Their Mundlak model 2 also predicts a $76.2 increase in the value of a single-family home in the Midwest for a 0.18% increase in tree cover within a mile of the home. A circular area with 1-mile radius has 87.6 million ft2. Using the average tree cover of 18% (Table 2), they find that trees cover 15.8 million ft2, and a 1% increase in the percentage tree cover amounts to an increase of 158,000 ft2. Suppose again a 24-in. dbh green ash tree has a crown radius of 35 ft. and a crown area of 962 ft2. A 1% increase in tree cover is equivalent to 164 additional 24-in. dbh green ash trees within a mile of the home (158,000/962 = 164).

https://www.nature.org/en-us/what-we-do/our-priorities/build-healthy-cities/cities-stories/benefits-of-trees-forests/

What is the total value of a 1% increase in tree cover in a neighborhood? Here, [they] need to calculate the increase in value of all the homes in the neighborhood, and so [they] need an estimate of housing density. According to the 2019 US Census, there are 2,176 households per square mile in St. Paul, MN. If we assume the neighborhood is a circular mile in size, then there are 2176 * 3.14 = 6833 homes in the neighborhood (there are 3.14 mile2 in a circular mile). If each home benefits from the 1% increase in tree cover in the circular area, then the aggregate increase in property value is 6833 * $76.2 = $520,675, for the off-property component of the tree cover. In addition, the aggregate increase in property value is 164 * $222 = $36,408 for the on-property component of tree cover, again assuming the 1% increase in tree cover is composed of 164 24-in. dbh ash trees. Adding those two components, the total value of a 1% increase in tree cover in the circular mile area is $557,083 or $277 per acre of land.

by Kent Kovacs, Grant West, David J. Nowak and Robert G. Haight

Ecological Economics via Elsevier Science Direct www.Sciencedirect.com

Volume 197, July 2022, 107424

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107424