Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Public Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Abstract
Our study examines public acceptability of the EU’s future mitigation targets. Using the discrete choice experiment, we elicit the preferences of about 4,098 respondents from the Czech Republic, Poland, and the United Kingdom for the GHG emission reduction policies that differ in four attributes: emission reduction target, burden sharing across the EU Member States, the distribution of costs within each country, and cost. The three specific reduction targets we analysed correspond to the EU 2050 Roadmap and deep decarbonisation policy (80% target), the climate-energy 2014 targets (40% target), and the status quo policy (20% target); each will result in a specific emission trajectory by 2050. Our results reveal stark differences between the three countries. Czechs would be on average willing to pay around EUR 13 per household and year for the 40% GHG emission reductions by 2030 or EUR 17 for 80% reduction target by 2050, and the citizens of the UK are willing to pay about EUR 40. Conversely, the mean willingness to pay of the Polish household for adopting more stringent targets is not statistically different from zero. The willingness to pay for adopting 40% and 80% targets are not statistically different in any of the examined countries. However, we found that the preferences in all three countries are highly heterogeneous. In addition, we provide an insight into the preferred characteristics of the future GHG emission reduction policies.
Climate-smart agri­cul­ture has emerged as an impor­tant means of both mit­i­gat­ing and adapt­ing to cli­mate change.
by Milan Ščasný 1, Iva Zverinova 1 and Mikołaj Czajkowski 2 and Katarzyna Zagórska
1. Charles University in Prague
2. University of Warsaw
Climate Policy via Taylor and Francis Online www.tandfonline.com 
Published online: 08 Dec 2016; 20 pages
via Research Gate https://www.researchgate.net

Monday, January 9, 2017

The Amenity Cost of Road Noise

Abstract:      
This article reports [the results of] a complete two stage hedonic analysis for road noise. For the estimation of the hedonic price function I develop a spatial research design which simultaneously reduces the risk of omitted variable bias and the risk of measurement error in the noise measure. The preference parameters are identified following the approach developed in Bajari and Benkard (2005) by using a simple functional form for utility. Preferences are very heterogeneous and observable demographic characteristics explain 30 percent of the variation in taste for quiet. Results are used to discuss willingness to pay for noise reductions from two policy measures.
...
Several policy instruments are currently in use in the study area to limit the impact of road noise pollution. These span from technical solutions such as noise reducing asphalt or emission standards for tyres and vehicles, to traffic management, and subsidies for noise insulation. The current section discusses the welfare changes associated with two of these instruments: Regulation at the source in the shape of technical requirements (standards) for tyres, and traffic management with the closure of a busy road in central Copenhagen for private motor vehicles.

The friction between road and tyres is of increasing importance in generating road noise for vehicles travelling at more than 35 km per hour. The noise emission of tyres has been subject to regulation at the EU level since 2001 and was tightened in 2009 ((EC) No 661/2009) with effect from November 2011. The noise limits for tyres were reduced by 3-4 dB, but as the existing fleet was to a large extent already equipped with tyres below the limit for noise the expected effect on noise pollution has been assessed to be closer to 1-2 dB than 3-4 dB....

The median WTP for a 1 dB reduction of road noise is generally higher for families with children under the age of 18. Families without children and retiree households have very similar WTP somewhat lower than families with children. Students and singles have the lowest WTP....The total WTP for a 1 dB reduction across the households sums to DKK 3.7 million annually in 2000-prices for the 23,000 households in the 200 m sample with noise above 55 dB. Although families with children only account for 23 % of the sample, 37% of the benefits from the 1 dB reduction accrue to them. In contrast, singles make up 28 % of the sample and receive only 15 % of the benefits. If these WTP estimates are representative of the population of the whole EU area the total willingness to pay for the reduction in road noise is substantially larger. Overall, the benefits are likely to exceed the cost of the policy. Low noise tyres were already on the market prior to 2011 and were not generally more expensive than other tyres nor did they have worse properties.
...
A preferred strategy for noise reduction in the municipality of Copenhagen is to concentrate traffic on the network of major roads (Center for Miljø, 2013). In late 2008 an experiment was conducted in the district of Nørrebro in central Copenhagen. The municipality of Copenhagen decided to re-route traffic out of Nørrebrogade, a main route into the center of Copenhagen. Parts of the street were closed for car traffic temporarily for 3 months starting in October 2008. In the fall of 2009 it was decided to make the closure permanent with minor changes and to reduce the speed limit from 50 to 40 km/h. An evaluation of the effects of the project has shown a reduction in noise levels of up to 3 dB for homes located in the affected part of Nørrebrogade, where noise levels were estimated at 68 dB before the project....

Table 10 shows the distribution of WTP for a 3 dB reduction for five groups in the road border sample: The whole sample; households in the Nørrebro district; households with at least 68 dB road noise; households in Nørrebro with at least 68 dB road noise; and finally, households in a wealthier neighboring district, Østerbro, with at least 68 dB road noise. The WTP for a 3 dB reduction is very heterogeneous in the sample as a whole. In Nørrebro the heterogeneity is lower and WTP is generally lower with a median WTP half the size of the median WTP for the sample as a whole. For households in the whole research area exposed to at least 68 dB of road noise, the distribution of WTP for a 3 dB reduction shifts to the right and is less dispersed though still with a long right tail.
Noisy traffic
The WTP for households in Nørrebro with more than 68 dB of road noise is similar but more symmetric with an annual median WTP of 386 DKK not far from the mean of 417 DKK. In the wealthier district of Østerbro, the distribution of WTP shifts to the 25right with a median WTP of 467 DKK and a mean WTP of 606 DKK indicating that individual households there would gain more from a similar reduction....

Policy- v. Individual Heterogeneity in the Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation: Evidence from a Stated-Preference Survey

Abstract:      
The implementation of decarbonization policies depends crucially on the public’s willingness to pay for them. We use stated preference methods to investigate the public’s preferences for such policies. We ask three research questions. First, does the willingness to pay (WTP) for each ton of CO2 emissions reductions depend on the policies and on individual characteristics of the respondents? Second, how extensive is the variation associated with these factors? Third, what factors affect support for or opposition to a carbon tax? Based on the responses to discrete choice experiments from a sample of Italians, we find that the WTP per ton of CO2 ranges between € 6 and 130, depending on whether the public program is based on taxes, incentives, information-based approaches or standards. Further allowing for individual characteristics of the respondents, such as gender or education, and knowledge of climate change, results in a 300% change in WTP, holding the policy instrument the same. We conclude that the variation associated with the policy instrument is approximately of the same order of magnitude as that associated with individual characteristics of the respondents....
by Anna Alberini 1, Milan Ščasný 2 and Andrea Bigano 3
1. University of Maryland - Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
2. Charles University Prague
3. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) & Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
FEEM Working Paper No. 80.2016; December 20, 2016; 33 pages
Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation, WTP per ton of CO2 Emissions Reduced, Choice Experiments

http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2887920

‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets

Abstract
Investors and financial regulators are increasingly aware of climate-change risks. So far, most of the attention has fallen on whether controls on carbon emissions will strand the assets of fossil-fuel companies1, 2. However, it is no less important to ask, what might be the impact of climate change itself on asset values? Here we show how a leading integrated assessment model can be used to estimate the impact of twenty-first-century climate change on the present market value of global financial assets. We find that the expected ‘climate value at risk’ (climate VaR) of global financial assets today is 1.8% along a business-as-usual emissions path. Taking a representative estimate of global financial assets, this amounts to US$2.5 trillion. However, much of the risk is in the tail. For example, the 99th percentile climate VaR is 16.9%, or US$24.2 trillion. These estimates would constitute a substantial write-down in the fundamental value of financial assets. Cutting emissions to limit warming to no more than 2 °C reduces the climate VaR by an expected 0.6 percentage points, and the 99th percentile reduction is 7.7 percentage points. Including mitigation costs, the present value of global financial assets is an expected 0.2% higher when warming is limited to no more than 2 °C, compared with business as usual. The 99th percentile is 9.1% higher. Limiting warming to no more than 2 °C makes financial sense to risk-neutral investors—and even more so to the risk averse.

by Simon Dietz, Alex Bowen, Charlie Dixon and Philip Gradwell
Nature Climate Change, 6 . pages 676-679.
in Research Papers in Economics (REPEC) https://ideas.repec.org

Sunday, January 8, 2017

The Effect of Natural Space on Nearby Property Prices: Accounting for Perceived Attractiveness

Abstract
This paper estimates the effect of attractive natural space on Dutch residential property prices. We operationalize attractive natural spaces by combining land use data with unique data on the perceived attractiveness of natural spaces. In our main results, the effect of attractive natural space on property prices falls from 16.0% for properties within 0.5 km, to 1.6% for properties up to 7 km away. Our findings advance existing hedonic studies by verifying that economic benefits of living near natural space extend over a larger distance. This has important implications for public policy regarding investment in natural space near residential areas. 
Picture of Natural Ice pastime (Netherlands): Winter scene in the Alblasserwaard: skating through a town
http://le.uwpress.org/content/92/3/389.abstract
by Michiel N. Daams, Frans J. Sijtsma, and Arno J. van der Vlist
Land Economics http://le.uwpress.org/ via University of Wisconsin Press
Volume 20, Number 3; August, 2016; pages 389-410

Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies

Abstract:
Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Yet nations have to date taken minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to present new projections and the impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results will those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if there are not major climate-change policies. It suggests that it will be extremely difficult to achieve the 2°C target of international agreements even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.
...
There are three statistics for central values and three for uncertainty. Look first at the estimates for temperature increase for 2100. The certainty equivalent (CE) for DICE is 4.10 °C, while the mean is a tiny bit higher at 4.12 and the median is lower at 4.06 °C. These suggest that the distribution is close to symmetric and that the CE gets a good approximation of the estimates with uncertainty. 

Other variables display considerable asymmetry in the distributions. The SCC (Social Cost of Carbon) for 2015 has a mean of 35.6$/t CO2 whereas the CE is about 15% lower at 31.2$/t CO2. Output and CO2 concentrations are similarly skewed. The issue of whether the CE is a reasonable approximation is important because it vastly simplifies analysis. The answer is, sometimes yes, sometimes no. Appendix Table A-3 provides a tabulation of variables and the bias from using the CE approach.
Global social cost of carbon by different assumptions