Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCCs) significantly increase the frequency of mudflows in the silty areas of north-western Europe and particularly in the NUTS 3 Seine-Maritime region (France). Predicting the effects of a range of possible LUCCs helps local authorities choose policies that can help to mitigate the risks to which local populations are exposed. In this article we build scenarios for changes in farming systems, with a 2015 horizon and with 2007 as the initial situation. These scenarios are assessed through combined biophysical and economic approaches. Two scenarios for the disappearance of dairy farming are chosen. One scenario has no public-action program (StopMilk), while the other one has a program based on the funding of best management practices (StopMilk-E). These scenarios are assessed at the small watershed scale (7 km2) in terms of both changes in farming systems and effects on runoff (use of the STREAM model). Finally, the economic evaluation of additional costs of StopMilk-E is extrapolated at the level of the Austreberthe watershed syndicate (214 km2), using the French Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) with a spatially referenced database of cropping plans. StopMilk leads to a significant increase in runoff whereas the local public-action program proposed under StopMilk-E reduces runoff to below the 2007 level. The Austreberthe watershed residents’ willingness to pay for a 15-year program is around €395,000/year, which is not sufficient to balance the cost of the modified farming practices (€640,000/year over the first 3 years). Funding of the practices would require either subsidies from a higher level (Europe), borrowing by the community, and/or a more selective approach in the type and the location of farming practices to be funded. The method used for calculating costs at the watershed syndicate level shows the huge potential of new databases like LPIS (available in France since 2006) for the assessment of environmental issues.
- The disappearance of dairy farming would lead to the conversion of grassland into annual crops.
- Grassland conversion into annual crops would lead to an increase of regional runoff.
- Best management practices (BMP) could balance out the effects of grassland conversion.
- The Land Parcel Identification System is useful for working on the localization of land use change.
- The willingness to pay for BMP is lower than the amount required for BMP funding
- a AgroParisTech, UMR 1048 SAD-APT, F-78850 Thiverval-Grignon, Franceb INRA, UMR 1048 SAD-APT, F-78850 Thiverval-Grignon, Francec Unité Agriterr – Lecor ESITPA, 3, rue du Tronquet, CS 40118, F-76134 Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, Franced INRA, UR 1303 ALISS, F-94205 Ivry-sur-Seine, France
- Corresponding author at: UMR SAD-APT, bât EGER, BP01, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France. Tel.: +33 1 30 81 59 30; fax: +33 1 30 81 59 39.
- 1 Current address: Syndicat de Bassin Versant Basse vallée et Moyen Couesnon, Parc d’activité de Pontorson – Mont Saint Michel, 50170 Pontorson, France. Tel.: +33 2 33 89 15 11; fax: +33 2 33 60 52 83.
- Volume 38; May, 2014; Pages 454–466
- Keywords: Runoff risk; Scenario; Dairy farm; Willingness to pay; LUCC; LPIS