http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2011.02.008
Abstract: The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country.
by Joseph Buongiorno 1, Ronald Raunikar 2 and Shushuai Zhu 1
1. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
2. US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, USA
Available online 24 March 2011.
Journal of Forest Economics via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com
Volume 17, Issue 2, April 2011, Pages 214-229
Keywords: Forest sector; Modeling; Bioenergy; Fuelwood; Wood products; Prices; Demand; Supply; Trade
Abstract: The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country.
by Joseph Buongiorno 1, Ronald Raunikar 2 and Shushuai Zhu 1
1. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
2. US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, USA
Available online 24 March 2011.
Journal of Forest Economics via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com
Volume 17, Issue 2, April 2011, Pages 214-229
Keywords: Forest sector; Modeling; Bioenergy; Fuelwood; Wood products; Prices; Demand; Supply; Trade
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